Vikram Nehru is one of the lead authors of the World Bank report China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society.
By any standard, China’s economic performance over the last three decades has been impressive. GDP growth averaged 10 percent a year, and over 500 million people were lifted out of poverty. China is now the world’s largest exporter and manufacturer, and its second largest economy.
By any standard, China’s economic performance over the last three decades has been impressive. GDP growth averaged 10 percent a year, and over 500 million people were lifted out of poverty. China is now the world’s largest exporter and manufacturer, and its second largest economy.
Even if growth moderates, China is likely to become a high-income
economy and the world’s largest economy before 2030, notwithstanding the
fact that its per capita income would still be a fraction of the
average in advanced economies.
But two questions arise. Can China’s growth rate still be among the
highest in the world even if it slows from its current pace? And can it
maintain this rapid growth with little disruption to the world, the
environment, and the fabric of its own society?
This report answers both questions in the affirmative, without
downplaying the risks. By 2030, China has the potential to be a modern,
harmonious, and creative high-income society. But achieving this
objective will not be easy. To seize its opportunities, meet its many
challenges, and realize its development vision for 2030, China needs to
implement a new development strategy in its next phase of development.
The reforms that launched China on its current growth trajectory were
inspired by Deng Xiaoping who played an important role in building
consensus for a fundamental shift in the country’s strategy. After more
than 30 years of rapid growth, China has reached another turning point
in its development path when a second strategic, and no less
fundamental, shift is called for. The 12th Five Year Plan provides an
excellent start. This report combines its key elements to design a
longer-term strategy that extends to 2030. More importantly, it focuses
on the “how,” not just the “what.”
http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/China-2030-complete.pdf
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