- Rapid and disruptive change in the Arctic environment presents
uneven prospects for investment and economic development. All across
the Arctic, changes in climate will create new vulnerabilities for
infrastructure and present new design challenges.
- The Arctic is likely to attract substantial investment over the
coming decade, potentially reaching $100bn or more. However, given the
high risk/potentially high reward nature of Arctic investment, this
figure could be significantly higher or lower.
- Uncertainties and knowledge gaps exist around the nature of
environmental change, the geological potential of the Arctic and
environmental baselines, as well as seabed mapping, and how to deal with
the risks of significant Arctic industrial activity.
- Arctic conditions will remain challenging and often
unpredictable. Many of the operational risks to Arctic economic
development – particularly oil and gas developments, and shipping –
amplify one another. At the same time, the resilience of the Arctic’s
ecosystems to withstand risk events is weak, and political and corporate
sensitivity to a disaster is high.
- The environmental consequences of disasters in the Arctic are likely to be worse than in other regions.
- Given the Arctic's iconic status and sensitive environment, Arctic
development is often politically contentious, with sometimes opposing
interests and perspectives between local, national and international
levels. Political support for development will continue to represent an
uncertainty for businesses seeking to invest in Arctic projects.
- The challenges of Arctic development demand coordinated responses
where viable, common standards where possible, transparency and best
practice across the north. These frameworks need to be in place to
enable sustainable development and uphold the public interest.
- Companies operating in the Arctic require robust risk management frameworks and processes that adopt best practice and contain worst case scenarios, crisis response plans and full-scale exercises.
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