Tuesday, May 29, 2012
International Order at Sea: Anti-Piracy and Humanitarian Operations | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
International Order at Sea: Anti-Piracy and Humanitarian Operations | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
International Order at Sea is a workshop series chaired by the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS) in partnership with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi; China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies (CFISS) and China Institute for Marine Affairs (CIMA), Beijing; and the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), Alexandria, VA.
The workshop series examines seapower and the future of the global commons. It explores how international order at sea is established, maintained, changed and challenged, and it focuses on the interaction and cooperation among leading, emerging and smaller naval powers to maintain order at sea.
Given the last decade's maritime cooperation in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations after the 2004 tsunami and the 2011 earth quake and tsunami in Japan, and the last years' anti-piracy efforts off-Somalia and elsewhere, the first workshop on “Anti-Piracy and Humanitarian Operations” was a timely and important event.
The first paper by a team of Norwegian scholars and naval officers assesses Norway’s contribution to multilateral anti-piracy missions in the Indian Ocean and Somalia. The paper by Bernard Cole, professor at the US National War College, is an analysis of several recent US HADR operations in the Asia-Pacific region. Sarabjeet Singh Parmar, research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, discusses the importance of HADR operations in India’s National Strategy. The last paper by Øystein Tunsjø, associate professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, adresses the impact of recent and future maritime developments in Asia on Norwegian security.
International Order at Sea is a workshop series chaired by the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS) in partnership with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi; China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies (CFISS) and China Institute for Marine Affairs (CIMA), Beijing; and the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), Alexandria, VA.
The workshop series examines seapower and the future of the global commons. It explores how international order at sea is established, maintained, changed and challenged, and it focuses on the interaction and cooperation among leading, emerging and smaller naval powers to maintain order at sea.
Given the last decade's maritime cooperation in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations after the 2004 tsunami and the 2011 earth quake and tsunami in Japan, and the last years' anti-piracy efforts off-Somalia and elsewhere, the first workshop on “Anti-Piracy and Humanitarian Operations” was a timely and important event.
The first paper by a team of Norwegian scholars and naval officers assesses Norway’s contribution to multilateral anti-piracy missions in the Indian Ocean and Somalia. The paper by Bernard Cole, professor at the US National War College, is an analysis of several recent US HADR operations in the Asia-Pacific region. Sarabjeet Singh Parmar, research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, discusses the importance of HADR operations in India’s National Strategy. The last paper by Øystein Tunsjø, associate professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, adresses the impact of recent and future maritime developments in Asia on Norwegian security.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
ASEAN AND THE INDIAN OCEAN The Key Maritime Links Edito rs: Sam Bateman , Jane Chan , Euan Graham The views represented in this document are not a reflection of the views and policies of any government but solely those of the authors. The document also represents a compromised rather than a consensus view and the authors are not agreed on every single issue. RSIS POLICY PAPER
The Indo-Pacific region s an area of both relative insecurity and strategic stability. It contains some significant flashpoints and has its fair share of border issues, acts of terrorism and overlapping maritime claims. Robert Kaplan has argued in Foreign Affairs that the Indian Ocean could be centre stage for the challenges of the twenty-first century, and that the maritime dimension is the key element of how geopolitics might play out.http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/policy_papers/RSIS_PolicyPaperASEAN_A4_211011.pdf
The past few years have been an eventful period for the South China Sea dispute. The tensions and disputes and the consequential diplomatic pressures exerted on China have prompted an unprecedented debate among the foreign policy community in the country. Chinese policy-makers and analysts seriously reviewed other countries’ policies and deliberated on China’s appropriate responses and future policy options. This paper seeks to provide a comprehensive overview of the Chinese debate on three issues: (1) the ways various schools of thought have viewed the South China Sea dispute, (2) the types of policy proposals made, and (3) areas where consensus and disagreements exist. It also attempts to analyze how the debate relates to China’s official position and actual policy and behaviour in the dispute. From this comprehensive overview, we can derive some useful clues to better understand China’s response to the South China Sea dispute in the coming years. Four notable themes have emerged from the Chinese debate. First, contrary to the widespread external criticism of China for its growing assertiveness, the predominant view among Chinese analysts is that all the tensions and disputes are mainly attributable to the collusion between the United States and regional claimant states. Second, it has been frequently proposed that China should be more proactive in the South China Sea in order to change its current reactive posture. It has been suggested that China can achieve this goal by taking initiatives in three areas: accelerating exploitation of resources in the South China Sea; restraining the involvement of the United States in the South China Sea issue; and exercising greater flexibility in adopting multilateralism to deal with various non-traditional security challenges in the South China Sea. Third, the majority of Chinese analysts and officials believe that the disputes in the South China Sea in the past few years have led to the worsening of China’s regional security environment. Fourth, there appears to be an emerging consensus that Beijing should practise a South China Sea policy that could be best characterized as non-confrontational assertiveness, Pradumna B. Rana
Monday, May 21, 2012
Looking Beyond the Chicago Summit: Nuclear Weapons in Europe and the Future of NATO George Perkovich, Malcolm Chalmers, Steven Pifer, Paul Schulte, Jaclyn Tandler Carnegie Paper, April 2012
Leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will meet for a
summit in Chicago this May to conclude their Deterrence and Defense
Posture Review (DDPR), which was intended to be a vehicle for resolving
key questions about the future role of nuclear weapons in NATO policy.
However, NATO is unlikely to resolve the question of what to do about
its forward deployed nuclear weapons before the summit.
http://carnegieendowment.org/files/beyond_chicago_summit.pdf
http://carnegieendowment.org/files/beyond_chicago_summit.pdf
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Monday, May 7, 2012
Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North
- Rapid and disruptive change in the Arctic environment presents
uneven prospects for investment and economic development. All across
the Arctic, changes in climate will create new vulnerabilities for
infrastructure and present new design challenges.
- The Arctic is likely to attract substantial investment over the
coming decade, potentially reaching $100bn or more. However, given the
high risk/potentially high reward nature of Arctic investment, this
figure could be significantly higher or lower.
- Uncertainties and knowledge gaps exist around the nature of
environmental change, the geological potential of the Arctic and
environmental baselines, as well as seabed mapping, and how to deal with
the risks of significant Arctic industrial activity.
- Arctic conditions will remain challenging and often
unpredictable. Many of the operational risks to Arctic economic
development – particularly oil and gas developments, and shipping –
amplify one another. At the same time, the resilience of the Arctic’s
ecosystems to withstand risk events is weak, and political and corporate
sensitivity to a disaster is high.
- The environmental consequences of disasters in the Arctic are likely to be worse than in other regions.
- Given the Arctic's iconic status and sensitive environment, Arctic
development is often politically contentious, with sometimes opposing
interests and perspectives between local, national and international
levels. Political support for development will continue to represent an
uncertainty for businesses seeking to invest in Arctic projects.
- The challenges of Arctic development demand coordinated responses
where viable, common standards where possible, transparency and best
practice across the north. These frameworks need to be in place to
enable sustainable development and uphold the public interest.
- Companies operating in the Arctic require robust risk management frameworks and processes that adopt best practice and contain worst case scenarios, crisis response plans and full-scale exercises.
'Bread, Dignity and Social Justice': The Political Economy of Egypt's Transition - Jane Kinninmont
- In Egypt’s 2011 uprising, political and economic grievances were
closely linked in attempts to address complex problems of corruption
and injustice. But the crossclass, cross-ideology coalition that united
behind the uprising has predictably fragmented, and different groups now
have divergent views on the applicability of liberal economic policies
to Egypt.
- The Islamist parties which between them won a majority in the
2011–12 parliamentary election appear to favour the continuation of a
broadly pro-market policy, although, like all parties, they have
emphasized the need for greater ‘social justice’ and less corruption.
Leftist groups and trade unions remain largely unrepresented in
parliament and tensions may be brewing between labour and Islamist
forces over economic policy.
- Uncertainty over future economic policy is currently deterring
investment. Although economic policy was not the main focus in the
parliamentary election campaign, there is a pressing need for all
parties to develop their economic blueprints further.
- Debates over the role of the state, the free market and the nature of globalization are part of democratic self-determination. Rather than repeating old mantras about the intrinsic desirability of a smaller public sector, external actors need to remember that economic policy advice on the role of the state is not purely technical but value-laden.
US Election Note: China Policy after 2012 Xenia Dormandy
This paper lays out the likely China policy of either a second-term
Barack Obama administration or an incoming Mitt Romney
administration, and the international implications of these two
alternatives.
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Americas/0512usen_china.pdf
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Americas/0512usen_china.pdf
Friday, May 4, 2012
Preparing for High-impact, Low-probability Events: Lessons from Eyjafjallajökull Chatham House Report Bernice Lee and Felix Preston, with Gemma Green, January 2012
The frequency of high-impact, low-probability (HILP) events in the
last decade such as Hurricane Katrina, the Deepwater Horizon oil
disaster and the nuclear crisis and tsunami in Japan, signals the
emergence of a new 'normal' – the beginning of a crisis trend.
- This report argues that governments and businesses remain
insufficiently prepared to manage HILP crises and shoulder their
economic, social and humanitarian consequences.
- The report sets out the economic costs of HILP events and how the
impacts of a shock spread across sectors and countries in today's
globalized world.
- The report explores two critical dimensions of the decision-making
environment during a crisis – omnipresent questions of scientific and
technological uncertainty, and the competing economic and political
interests of key stakeholders.
- Effective messaging and communications have never been more important in the management of high-impact events. The report draws on systemic analysis of social media to understand how the public discourse is shaped; highlights the window of opportunity to influence media messaging; and draws lessons for how the media should handle scientific uncertainties.
Treasure Mapped: Using Satellite Imagery to Track the Developmental Effects of Somali Piracy Programme Paper Anja Shortland, January 2012
- This paper uses recent forms of nightlight emissions and high resolution satellite imagery to look at the effects of piracy on the Somali economy and establish which groups benefit from ransom monies.
- Pirates appear to be investing money principally in the main cities of Garowe and Bosasso rather than in the coastal communities where pirate activity is located.
- The positive economic impacts of piracy are widely spread, so a military strategy to eradicate piracy could seriously undermine local development.
- Villages that have gained little from hosting pirates may be more open to a negotiated solution which would be to their benefit.
Maritime Choke Points and the Global Energy System: Charting a Way Forward Briefing Paper Charles Emmerson and Paul Stevens, January 2012
- The global energy transport system is vulnerable to disruption at
key maritime choke points such as the Straits of Malacca and Singapore,
Bab Al-Mandab, the Suez Canal, the Turkish Straits and the Strait of
Hormuz.
- The impact of a disruption on energy supply, prices and markets
depends on its extent and duration. Perceptions and the interaction of
'wet barrel' and 'paper barrel' markets play a major role in determining
price level and volatility.
- Measures closing international straits are generally illegal in
peacetime, and international law requires maintaining rights of transit
passage during war.
- Establishing and maintaining legal and political norms around the
security of maritime choke points – involving user states, consumer
states and international bodies – are essential.
- Cooperative mechanisms between coastal states can enhance
confidence, while the likelihood of deliberate disruptions would be
reduced by industry and government measures to mitigate their effects.
- The security of maritime choke points ultimately rests on the observance of international law, and on the willingness and capacity of interested members of the international community to enforce it if necessary.
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