Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Beyond bin Laden: Future trends in terrorism


This Strategy report examines the shifting patterns of global terrorism. It is the first major ASPI report on terrorism since the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. The report provides a comprehensive assessment of the geographic, operational and ideological trends that are driving the current wave of jihadist terrorism around the world. Those trends point to the increasing diversification of the threat, as a new generation of terrorist leaders in South Asia, North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula adapt and reinterpret al-Qaeda’s ideology.
The paper argues that new patterns of global terrorism will require more agile and effective policy responses. For Australia, the focus of counter-terrorism and counter-radicalisation efforts must shift towards the three areas most at risk from the influence of al-Qaeda’s ideology – individuals, institutions and the internet.
The paper was written by Carl Ungerer, Director of ASPI’s National Security Program.
http://www.aspi.org.au/publications/publication_details.aspx?ContentID=324&pubtype=-1
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Blog Archive

Asian Survey 51(1), 2011

  • Timor-Leste in 2010: The Window for a “Normal” Future? Matthew B. Arnold
  • Cambodia in 2010: Hun Sen’s Further Consolidation, Steve Heder
  • Laos in 2010: Political Stasis, Rabid Development, and Regional Counter-weighting, William Case
  • Vietnam in 2010: Regional Leadership, Ramses Amer
  • Indonesia in 2010: A Leading Democracy Disappoints on Reform, Ehito Kimura
  • Malaysia in 2010: Between a Rock and a Hard Place, Michael O’Shannassy
  • The Philippines in 2010: Blood, Ballots, and Beyond, Patricio N. Abinales
  • Thailand in 2010: Rupture and Attempts at Reconciliation, Catharin Dalpino
  • Myanmar in 2010: Doors Open, Doors Close, Sean Turnell
  • Bangladesh in 2010: Digital Makeover but Continued Human and Economic Insecurity, Bina D’Costa
  • Sri Lanka in 2010: Regime Consolidation in a Post-Civil War Era, Jayadeva Uyangoda
  • Nepal and Bhutan in 2010: At an Impasse, Susan Hangen
  • India in 2010: Robust Economics amid Political Stasis, Shalendra Sharma
  • Pakistan in 2010: Flooding, Governmental Inefficiency, and Continued Insurgency, C. Christine Fair
  • Afghanistan in 2010: Continuing Governance Challenges and Faltering Security, William Maley
  • Taiwan in 2010: Mapping for a New Political Landscape and Economic Outlook, Hung-mao Tien and Chen-yuan Tung
  • Russia and the CIS in 2010: Post-Crisis Tests, Yu-shan Wu
  • South Korea in 2010: Navigating New Heights in the Alliance, Victor D. Cha and Katrin Katz
  • Japan in 2010: Messy Politics but Healthier Democracy Frances Mccall Rosenbluth
  • North Korea in 2010: Provocations and Succession Peter M. Beck
  • China in 2010: Dilemmas of “Scientific Development” Guoguang Wu
  • The United States and Asia in 2010: Uncertain Relations, François Ggodement
  • Asia in 2010: Continent Ascendant, Lowell Dittmer

Australian Journal of International Affairs, 65(1), 2011

  • An East Asian security community: Japan, Australia and resources as 'security' Donna Weeks Pages 61 - 80
  • Asia's transformation, international relations and public policy Nick Bisley Pages 102 - 108
  • From the age of asymmetry to the great reconvergence: securing order in the Asian century Andrew Phillips Pages 94 - 101
  • Japanese domestic politics and security cooperation with Australia: the limits of 'normalisation' Tadashi Anno Pages 24 - 39
  • Japanese security policy formation: assessing the Koizumi revolution Rikki Kersten Pages 5 - 23
  • Power shift: rethinking Australia's place in the Asian century Hugh White Pages 81 - 93
  • Regional security cooperation in East Asia: what can Japan and Australia usefully do together? Kazuhiko Togo Pages 40 - 60

Australian Journal of International Affairs, 65(2), 2011

  • Anglo-American followers or Antipodean iconoclasts? The 2008 TRIP survey of international relations in Australia and New Zealand J. C. Sharman; Jacqui True Pages 148 - 166
  • Building the nation in Timor-Leste and its implications for the country's democratic development Selver B. Sahin Pages 220 - 242
  • Change and continuity in strategic culture: the cases of Australia and New Zealand David McCraw Pages 167 - 184
  • Contextualising the AIDS epidemic in the South Pacific: orthodoxies, estimates and evidence Michael O'Keefe Pages 185 - 202
  • Securitising HIV/AIDS in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region Anna Hayes; Abduresit Qarluq Pages 203 - 219

Conflict, Security & Development, 11(1), 2011

  • 'War don don': stability, normalcy and Sierra Leone Alice Hills Pages 1 - 24
  • Conflict and gender: the implications of the Burundian conflict on HIV/AIDS risks Hakan Seckinelgin; Joseph Bigirumwami; Jill Morris Pages 55 - 77
  • Revolutionary conflict in federations: the Indian case Jason Miklian Pages 25 - 53
  • The securitisation of civil society: a case study of NGOs-State Security Investigations (SSI) relations in Egypt Mariz Tadros Pages 79 - 103

Democratization 18(2), 2011

  • An autocrat's toolkit: adaptation and manipulation in 'democratic' Cameroon Ericka A. Albaugh Pages 388 - 414
  • Can democratization undermine democracy? Economic and political reform in Uganda Michael F. Keating Pages 415 - 442
  • Democracy promotion in Africa: the institutional context Oda van Cranenburgh Pages 443 - 461
  • Democracy, identity and the politics of exclusion in post-genocide Rwanda: the case of the Batwa Danielle Beswick Pages 490 - 511
  • Democratic crisis or crisis of confidence? What local perceptual lenses tell us about Madagascar's 2009 political crisis Lauren Leigh Hinthorne Pages 535 - 561
  • Democratization in Africa 1990-2010: an assessment Gabrielle Lynch; Gordon Crawford Pages 275 - 310
  • Ethnicity and party preference in sub-Saharan Africa Matthias Basedau; Gero Erdmann; Jann Lay; Alexander Stroh Pages 462 - 489
  • Taking back our democracy? The trials and travails of Nigerian elections since 1999 Cyril Obi Pages 366 - 387
  • The abrogation of the electorate: an emergent African phenomenon Wale Adebanwi; Ebenezer Obadare Pages 311 - 335
  • The internal dynamics of power-sharing in Africa Nic Cheeseman Pages 336 - 365
  • Well, what can you expect?': donor officials' apologetics for hybrid regimes in Africa Stephen Brown Pages 512 - 534

Democratization 18(1), 2011

  • Democracy and 'punitive populism': exploring the Supreme Court's role in El Salvador Elena Martinez Barahona; Sebastian Linares Lejarraga Pages 52 - 74
  • Democratic agency in the local political sphere. Reflections on inclusion in Bolivia Nancy Thede Pages 211 - 235
  • Democratization by decree: the case of Bhutan Mark Turner; Sonam Chuki; Jit Tshering Pages 184 - 210
  • Military extrication and temporary democracy: the case of Pakistan Michael Hoffman Pages 75 - 99
  • Obstacles to citizen participation by direct democracy in Latin America: a comparative regional analysis of legal frameworks and evidence from the Costa Rican case Anita Breuer Pages 100 - 134
  • Questioning Tocqueville in Africa: continuity and change in civil society during Nigeria's democratization A. Carl LeVan Pages 135 - 159
  • Stateness first? Jørgen Møller; Svend-Erik Skaaning Pages 1 - 24
  • Structural factors vs. regime change: Moldova's difficult quest for democracy Theodor Tudoroiu Pages 236 - 264
  • The religious experience as affecting ambivalence: the case of democratic performance evaluation in Israel Pazit Ben-Nun-Bloom; Mina Zemach; Asher Arian Pages 25 - 51
  • When government fails us: trust in post-socialist civil organizations Dani M. Marinova Pages 160 - 183

Foreign Affairs, 90(1), 2011

  • A Leaner and Meaner Defense: How to Cut the Pentagon's Budget While Improving Its Performance Gordon Adams, Matthew Leatherman, p. 139
  • A Third Way to Palestine: Fayyadism and Its Discontents Robert M Danin, p. 94
  • Culture Matters: The Real Obstacles to Latin American Development Oscar Arias, p. 2
  • Enforcing the Peace: How the Great Powers Can Resolve the Israeli-Palestinian Impasse Howard M Sachar, p. 14
  • Finish the Job: How the War in Afghanistan Can Be Won Paul D Miller, p. 51
  • Less Than Zero: Bursting the New Disarmament Bubble Josef Joffe, James W Davis, p. 7
  • Plan B in Afghanistan: Why a De Facto Partition Is the Least Bad Option Robert D Blackwill, p. 42
  • Small Arms, Big Problems: The Fallout of the Global Gun Trade C J Chivers, p. 110
  • Sudan's Secession Crisis: Can the South Part From the North Without War? Andrew S Natsios, Michael Abramowitz, p. 19
  • The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment Eric S Edelman, Andrew F Krepinevich, Evan Braden Montgomery, p. 66
  • The Good News About Gas: The Natural Gas Revolution and Its Consequences John Deutch, p. 82
  • The Political Power of Social Media: Technology, the Public Sphere, and Political Change Clay Shirky, p. 28
  • The Softer Side of War: Exploring the Influence of Culture on Military Doctrine Peter R Mansoor, p. 164
  • West Is Best? Why Civilizations Rise and Fall Timur Kuran, p. 159
  • Why Moscow Says No: A Question of Russian Interests, Not Psychology Andrei Shleifer, Daniel Treisman, p. 122
  • Why the Rich Are Getting Richer: American Politics and the Second Gilded Age Robert C Lieberman, p. 154

Foreign Affairs, 90(2), 2011

  • A G-Zero World: The New Economic Club Will Produce Conflict, Not Cooperation Ian Bremmer, Nouriel Roubini, p. 2
  • Arms Sales for India: How Military Trade Could Energize U.S.-Indian Relations Sunil Dasgupta, Stephen P Cohen, p. 22
  • China's Search for a Grand Strategy: A Rising Great Power Finds Its Way Wang Jisi, p. 68
  • Currencies Aren't the Problem: Fix Domestic Policy, Not Exchange Rates Raghuram Rajan, p. 104
  • Currency Wars, Then and Now: How Policymakers Can Avoid the Perils of the 1930s Liaquat Ahamed, p. 92
  • Fighting the Laws of War: Protecting Civilians in Asymmetric Conflict Charli Carpenter, p. 146
  • From Innovation to Revolution: Do Social Media Make Protests Possible? Malcolm Gladwell, Clay Shirky, p. 153
  • Germany's Immigration Dilemma: How Can Germany Attract the Workers It Needs? Tamar Jacoby, p. 8
  • Getting China to Sanction Iran: The Chinese-Iranian Oil Connection Erica Downs, Suzanne Maloney, p. 15
  • How al Qaeda Works: What the Organization's Subsidiaries Say About Its Strength Leah Farrall, p. 128
  • Iraq, From Surge to Sovereignty: Winding Down the War in Iraq Emma Sky, p. 117
  • The Advantages of an Assertive China: Responding to Beijing's Abrasive Diplomacy Thomas J Christensen, p. 54
  • The Indian-Pakistani Divide: Why India Is Democratic and Pakistan Is Not Christophe Jaffrelot, p. 140
  • The Post-Washington Consensus: Development After the Crisis Nancy Birdsall, Francis Fukuyama, p. 45
  • The Tea Party and American Foreign Policy: What Populism Means for Globalism Walter Russell Mead, p. 28
  • The War Over Containing Iran: Can a Nuclear Iran Be Stopped? Dima Adamsky, Karim Sadjadpour, Diane de Gramont, Shahram Chubin, et al., p. 155
  • Will China's Rise Lead to War? Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism Charles Glaser, p. 80

International Security, 35(4), 2011

  • Preventing Enemy Coalitions: How Wedge Strategies Shape Power Politics Timothy W. Crawford, 155–189.
  • The Security Curve and the Structure of International Politics: A Neorealist Synthesis Davide Fiammenghi, 126–154.
  • The Right to Be Right: Civil-Military Relations and the Iraq Surge Decision Peter D. Feaver, 87–125.
  • Europe's Troubles: Power Politics and the State of the European Project Sebastian Rosato, 45–86.
  • Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment Paul K. MacDonald, Joseph M. Parent, 7–44.

Journal of Peace Research 48(1), 2011

  • Christopher S P Magee and Tansa George Massoud, Openness and internal conflict
  • Eric Neumayer and Thomas Plümper, Foreign terror on Americans
  • Ifat Maoz, Does contact work in protracted asymmetrical conflict? Appraising 20 years of reconciliation-aimed encounters between Israeli Jews and Palestinians
  • Joseph K Young and Laura Dugan, Veto players and terror
  • Krista E Wiegand, Militarized territorial disputes: States’ attempts to transfer reputation for resolve
  • Luis de la Calle and Ignacio Sánchez-Cuenca, The quantity and quality of terrorism: The DTV dataset
  • Marie Olson Lounsbery and Alethia H Cook, Rebellion, mediation, and group change: An empirical investigation of competing hypotheses
  • Michael Mousseau, Urban poverty and support for Islamist terror: Survey results of Muslims in fourteen countries
  • Toby J Rider, Michael G Findley, and Paul F Diehl, Just part of the game? Arms races, rivalry, and war

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 55(1), 2011

  • Ravi Bhavnani, Dan Miodownik, Hyun Jin Choi. Three Two Tango: Territorial Control and Selective Violence in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. 133-158
  • Jennifer Kavanagh. Selection, Availability, and Opportunity: The Conditional Effect of Poverty on Terrorist Group Participation. 106-132
  • Orlandrew Danzell. Political Parties: When Do They Turn to Terror?. 85-105
  • Juan Benito, Pablo Brañas-Garza, Penélope Hernández, Juan Sanchis. Sequential versus Simultaneous Schelling Models: Experimental Evidence. 60-84
  • Krista Wiegand, Emilia Powell. Past Experience, Quest for the Best Forum, and Peaceful Attempts to Resolve Territorial Disputes. 33-59
  • Susan Olzak. Does Globalization Breed Ethnic Discontent? 3-32

Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding 5(1), 2011

  • Creating 'Partners for Peace': The Palestinian Authority and the International Statebuilding Agenda Mandy Turner Pages 1 - 21
  • International Statebuilding and Contentious Universities in Kosovo Nina den Boer; Chris van der Borgh Pages 67 - 88
  • JISB Interview: Kosova in Dependence: From Stability of Crisis to the Crisis of Stability Albin Kurti Pages 89 - 97
  • Postwar Reconstruction, the Reverse Course and the New Way Forward: Bis Repetitas? Jeff Bridoux Pages 43 - 66
  • The EU's Military Operation in Chad and the Central African Republic: An Operation to Save Lives? Giovanna Bono Pages 23 - 42

Political Science Quarterly, 125(4), 2010

  • Robert Jervis. Policy and Politics in the United Kingdom and the United States: A Review Essay. p.685-700
  • Tarik Ouzlu. Turkey and Europeanization of Foreign Policy?. p. 657-683
  • Loree Bykerk, Ardith Maney. Consumer Protection Policy Issues on the Congressional Agenda. p.639-655
  • Brian Glenn. Conservatives and American Political Development. p.611-638
  • Raúl Madrid. The Origins of the Two Lefts in Latin America. p.587-609
  • Stephen Benedict Dyson. George W. Bush, the Surge, and Presidential Leadership. p.557-585

Security Dialogue 42(1), 2011

Scott Watson
The ‘human’ as referent object?: Humanitarianism as securitization, 3-20.

Jonathan Gilmore
A kinder, gentler counter-terrorism: Counterinsurgency, human security and the War on Terror, 21-37.

Sean Lawson
Articulation, antagonism, and intercalation in Western military imaginaries, 39-56.

Christophe Wasinski
On making war possible: Soldiers, strategy, and military grand narrative, 57-76.

Jonas Wolff and Iris Wurm
Towards a theory of external democracy promotion: A proposal for theoretical classification, 77-96.

Simon Reid-Henry
Spaces of security and development: An alternative mapping of the security–development nexus, 97-104.

Maria Stern and Joakim Öjendal
Mapping security–development: A question of methodology?
105-110

Small Wars and Insurgencies, 22(1), 2011

  • A transformed insurgency: The strategy of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) in the light of communist insurgency theories and a modified Beaufrean exterior/interior framework Mika Kerttunen, 78-118
  • Analyzing Taliban taranas (chants): an effective Afghan propaganda artifact Thomas H. Johnson; Ahmad Waheed, 3-31
  • Global counterinsurgency and US army expansion: the case for recruiting foreign troops Kevin D. Stringer, 142-169
  • The artful use of national power: Portuguese Angola (1961–1974) John P. Cann, 196-225
  • The strategic utility of New Zealand Special Forces Rhys Ball, 119-141
  • Traffickers, terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade Bettina Renz, 55-77
  • Trinitarian troubles: governmental, military, and societal explanations for post-1945 Western failures in asymmetric conflicts Bart Schuurman, 32-54
  • Winning hearts and minds to lose control: exploring various consequences of popular support in counterinsurgency missions Nori Katagiri, 170-195

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 34(4), 2011

  • Could Suicide Terrorists Actually Be Suicidal? Adam Lankford, 337-366
  • When Terrorism as Strategy Fails: Dissident Irish Republicans and the Threat to British Security Aaron Edwards, 318-336
  • Gender, Jihad, and Jingoism : Women as Perpetrators, Planners, and Patrons of Militancy in Kashmir Swati Parashar, 295-317
  • Negotiating Hostage Crises with the New Terrorists Adam Dolnik; Keith M. Fitzgerald, 267-294

Strategic Comments, 17( 1), 2011

  • China's J-20: future rival for air dominance? Pages 1 - 3
  • Gulf of Mexico spill: the longer-term impact Pages 1 - 3
  • North Korea's uranium programme heightens concern Pages 1 - 4
  • South Asia still beset by violent extremism Pages 1 - 3
  • WikiLeaks: the price of sharing data Pages 1 - 3

Strategic Comments 17(2), 2011

  • Bread and protests: the return of high food prices Pages 1 - 3
  • Clear, hold, hand over: NATO's Afghan transition plan Pages 1 - 3
  • Russian navy's regeneration plans Pages 1 - 3
  • Stuxnet: targeting Iran's nuclear programme Pages 1 - 3
  • The OSCE's uncertain future Pages 1 - 3

Survival 53(1), 2011

  • Al-Qaeda and the Struggle for Yemen Sarah Phillips Pages 95 - 120
  • Can Bad Governance be Good for Development? Sam Wilkin Pages 61 - 76
  • Climate Change and Security at the Third Pole Katherine Morton Pages 121 - 132
  • Iraq: Back to the Future Raad Alkadiri Pages 5 - 12
  • Mobilising Cyber Power Alexander Klimburg Pages 41 - 60
  • Policing the Waves: Maritime Paramilitaries in the Asia-Pacific Christian Le Mière Pages 133 - 146
  • Stuxnet and the Future of Cyber War James P. Farwell; Rafal Rohozinski Pages 23 - 40
  • The Korean Crises and Sino-American Rivalry Benjamin Schreer; Brendan Taylor Pages 13 - 19
  • The Socio-economics of Geopolitical Change Peter J. Munson Pages 77 - 94

Survival 53(2), 2011

  • A Post-Secular World? Cesare Merlini Pages 117 - 130
  • America and Egypt After the Uprisings Marc Lynch Pages 31 - 42
  • China's Vulnerability Trap Jonathan Holslag Pages 77 - 88
  • Exploring the Maze: Counter-proliferation Intelligence Michael Crawford Pages 131 - 158
  • Global Warming and the Arab Spring Sarah Johnstone; Jeffrey Mazo Pages 11 - 17
  • Hizbullah's Political Strategy Lina Khatib Pages 61 - 76
  • Politics and the Army in Egypt Ibrahim A. Karawan Pages 43 - 50
  • Reform and Rebirth in the Middle East Alanoud Al Sharekh Pages 51 - 60
  • Resetting the US-China Security Relationship Lyle J. Goldstein Pages 89 - 116
  • Towards Two Sudans Peter Woodward Pages 5 - 10
  • Waking the Arabs Elham Fakhro; Emile Hokayem Pages 21 - 30

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