This volumes examines the current emerging social, political, economic and security trends in the Gulf Region and likely trajectory of events and plausible scenarios for the next two decades to help policy makers in India to prepare for a variety of contingencies in a region of immense importance to India.
Some of the key findings include: the likelihood of political instability persisting in the region in the near to long term; almost certain impact of the unfinished Arab Spring on Gulf monarchies; continuation of external power politics and the sharpening sectarian divide playing their part impacting stability in the region; undiminished geo-economic importance of the region despite shift to use of clean and renewable sources of energy and shale gas revolution in USA because of increasing appetite for oil and gas in the Asian countries. The region’s importance for India in the field of trade and commerce as also a destination for migrant workers is also likely to persist creating economic interdependence between India and the Gulf region.
Some key recommendations are: India should prepare to play a larger role in the shaping of an inclusive regional security architecture; balance its interests between the GCC and Iran and build trust and mutual confidence with all the countries in the region without taking sides; enhance defence diplomacy and institutionalize defence relations with all the countries in the region; proactively invest in energy infrastructure development in the region; actively drive creation of network of pipelines and port(s) to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and; prepare detailed contingency plans for evacuation and rehabilitation of Indian migrants to meet any adverse contingency.
